To play devils advocate: It is kind of ironic that there have been ongoing attempts and laws actually being introduced to ban face covering veils worn by muslim women in Europe (France, I think). One reason being: It is impossible to communicate if you don’t see the face.
In Germany we have a ban on covering your face when attending a demonstration. So actually, masks gave us back some rights. 
I love that question! I think looking at cases like this probably hold key answers to what’s going on.
Germany was very good at doing this and yet wasn’t able to control spread as well as these countries. I doubt the answer lies solely with masking, distancing, tracking and tracing. We have other comparisons that were strict in their behavior and failed. Asking “what is different here” would be a fascinating exploration.
One of my favorite things to do on this topic is to run graphs from the Oxford World in Data website. It’s possible to compare things like death rates for places with different policy. It’s interesting to run the curves for Sweden and Australia and compare them, for example. According to the Oxford site the case rate for the current wave in Australia is 4x the case rate from the last curve, yet the death rate is 1/4th the rate from the last curve. And there’s the key question again. What’s different? Does the vaccination rate account for the lowered death rate? More to explore.
Overall, I’m surprised we don’t have more useful insight from all the data that’s out there. Haven’t we had aircraft carriers with outbreaks? Prisons? We should certainly know what percent of a population subset (not a true random sample) gets infected when everyone is simultaneously exposed. Where are those numbers?
You can look at Sturges, where they had a bike rally and statewide infections were up 450 times in the weeks following.
I guess I live in a rebel state.
Under Florida law, a bicycle rider or passenger must wear a helmet only if they are under 16 years of age.
Motorcyclists and motorcycle passengers who are 21 years old or older may be exempt from Florida’s motorcycle helmet requirement only if they obtain insurance coverage that provides a minimum of $10,000 in no-fault personal medical benefits for a motorcycle crash.
Have you looked at music festivals and football games across the country lately? We the Harley crowd always get a bad rap. Ironically those who ride a Harley are mostly professional and highly educated.
There are so many factors at play that may or may not interact with each other, add up. Listened to an interview with some data modeling people once. Fascinating stuff.
One of the main differences was probably the point in time at which severe measures were taken to contain the virus. Countries with more experience in pandemics (remember SARS?) were already trained in certain responses. People didn’t have to be convinced, they knew the protocol. Again, not the only reason, just one of many.
It’s just a well defined set of data. No comments on Harleys made.
We’re seeing that same set of data in lots of places. Preliminarily we’re chalking it up to two main factors: 1. Case rates include a. vaccinated breakthrough cases b. naturally acquired immunity breakthrough cases, and c. unvaccinated cases - and breakthrough cases are way, way less likely to be hospitalized or die - so we should see that shift overall mortality down substantially - this is probably the biggest statistical factor. 2. We’re better at treating COVID overall - hospitals and doctors were dealing with a super-unknown 18 months ago during the first surges. Just since August 2020, just in the US, we’ve treated 2,899,368 hospitalized cases of COVID - the sheer terrible scale of that amount of practice is making us a little better at treating- and that shifts mortality down a bit.
Is it also that age plays a role? Vaccination rate of older people being higher therefore less deaths?
Sturgis Motorcycle Rally 2021
Lollapalooza 2021 in Chicago
Both held early days of August. And Sturgis gets all the bad press.
** For the record you would not find me at any of them.
Sturgis happened in a rural state with no large metropolitan areas or competing events. It’s a cleaner set of data. As compared to Chicago.
Nothing to do with bikes mate
I was trying not to get into the weeds too much - but absolutely @Regina. Those who are at very high risk of serious outcomes (older, pre-existing conditions, immunocompromised, etc) are vaccinated at rates way, way above the average. In my County in the US, those 65+ have an astounding 96% vaccination rate! That pattern is emerging world-wide. It would seem that being at truly substantial risk of death or serious disease does a lot to dispel vaccine hesitancy. Being 65-74 makes you 90x more likely to die than an 18-29yo. 75-84yo’s are 220x more likely to die.
So that leaves a large amount of the unvaccinated in lower age ranges - more likely to survive a bout with COVID - again lowering the overall mortality rate. There are SO many variables like this - its just plain complicated. Its almost like you need a Ph.D. in Epidemiology or an MD in Immunology and Infectious Disease to parse it all. 
That’s why I listen to those folks so closely!
I just checked the numbers for Germany. Age groups most infected now are school children. Totally makes sense as they haven’t been vaccinated yet.
I think we will need to shift focus from mortality to long-term effects of the disease. Those are scary and seem to be very little understood and can affect everyone. That will have an impact on health care systems and society. Also, younger patients tend to remain longer on ICU wards because they don’t die that easily. So even if less people are admitted, hospitals will still struggle.
This is all far from over.
And these are the truly morbid factors acting in the background. 18 months ago, ICU bed turnover was significantly higher than it is now - because ICUs were filled with older folks who didn’t make it - so the bed was available for someone else. Beds now aren’t turning over as fast because younger folks hang on a lot longer. One thing that hasn’t changed appreciably: once you’re on a ventilator - your chances of survival are around 50% or slightly better. We put less people on vents nowadays - but sadly, once we intubate survival is a coin toss.
C.1.2 variant is on deck.
I think someone needs to grab a bass and play an uplifting tune now.
Same in Canada and that scares me because my two grandchildren are under the minimum age to be vaccinated.
It makes me angry and sad how children and teenagers have been treated during the pandemic. I can only hope the kids will be alright.
Hey gang, listen - I know this is an active topic in everybody’s mind these days, BUT - it also gets really divisive, and does not fit the bill of “no politics, play nice”, which are the lounge (and overall) guidelines here.
Closing this, and making a request that we avoid prolonged discussions of this topic on the forum. I do appreciate everybody avoiding a flame war and staying civil in this thread though!
